Andrew Painter's MLB Debut Is Here, and He Looks Nothing Like Last Year's Mess

Andrew Painter was supposed to be the next generational arm. Then his elbow had other ideas. After dominating three levels at 19 in 2022 and winning MLB Pipeline Pitching Prospect of the Year, Painter's trajectory looked set. Tommy John surgery in July 2023 derailed everything. He didn't throw competitively again until a successful Arizona Fall League stint in 2024, and everyone thought 2025 would be his big league arrival. Wrong again. Instead, Painter spent nearly the entire 2025 season in Triple-A Lehigh Valley and left fans wondering if the kid they drafted was ever coming back. He finishes the year with a 5.26 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .276 average-against. Not pretty. But here's where it gets interesting: Painter makes his MLB debut against the Nationals on Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET, and he looks like a completely different pitcher than the one who struggled most of last year.

The Elbow Is Back Where It Needs to Be

The biggest concern surrounding Painter entering 2025 was his arm slot. Scouts worried his elbow was dropping in his delivery, and last year proved those concerns were justified. But Spring Training changed everything about the conversation. His arm slot is back to where it was before surgery, and the confidence level is climbing again. The issue? Fatigue. After topping 100 innings in 2022, Painter didn't pitch for two full years outside of a handful of Arizona Fall League innings before throwing 118 IP last year. This offseason he got something he'd never had in years: a normal offseason. A full long toss program and actual rest helped his slot creep back up naturally. That should mean better endurance as the season moves forward.

The Fastball Command Is Back, and So Is the Breaking Stuff

Last year, hitters smoked Painter's fastball at a .343 average-against. This spring, opponents hit just .250 (5-for-20). The velocity was never the problem. He sat over 96 mph in 2025 and flirted with triple digits, then ran 96-98 mph during Grapefruit League action. But command was rough. Now it's sharp. Even better, his breaking stuff might be the best part of his arsenal. His hard, short slider sits 90-91 mph and looks nasty. He still has an effective sweeper at 83-84 mph and a low-80s curve. That upper-80s changeup? It missed bats at a 55 percent clip last year and was really good this spring. Bottom line: Painter has five legitimate pitches he can throw for strikes. When he's locked in, he commands all of them well. Even after his struggles, he posted a 31-percent miss rate in 2025. Imagine what he does when everything is clicking.

What's Next

Painter slots into the rotation ahead of Zack Wheeler's return, and he's still ranked No. 26 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list. The Spring Training numbers don't guarantee anything. We learned that lesson after the Arizona Fall League hype died in 2024. But this version of Painter looks like the one who made people believe in him in the first place. He'll make adjustments as the season progresses and should lock down a rotation spot for real, even when Wheeler gets back. Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET, the kid gets his shot.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.