Fernando Mendoza Is Already Locked In as the No. 1 Pick, and the Real Drama Is Everything After

The 2026 NFL Draft is almost here, and if you've been refreshing your phone waiting for leaks and smokescreens, buckle up because the intel is wild right now. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the consensus lock at No. 1, but after that? It gets messy fast. The second and third picks are wide open, and teams are playing games with their top-30 visits like their playoff lives depend on it.

The Top of the Draft Is Getting Shaky

Everyone expected Mendoza to go first. That's locked. But Ohio State's Arvell Reese and Texas Tech's David Bailey are both being projected for the next two spots in some order, which means somebody has to blink. Then there's Jeremiyah Love, the Notre Dame running back, who keeps popping up in top-five conversations and could throw a wrench into everyone's plans. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Arizona Cardinals haven't ruled out taking Love at No. 3 if they can't trade down for more picks, which tells you Love's stock is rising fast.

The Jets Are Sending Mixed Signals on Bailey

Here's where it gets interesting. The Jets canceled their top-30 visit with David Bailey, which had everyone thinking New York was ready to lock in Arvell Reese at No. 2. But then Jets GM Darren Mougey walked it back hard. "We had good touch points with him at the Combine," Mougey said. "We went to his pro day, had a good dinner with him. We were just kinda juggling our 30 and how to use them. I wouldn't look too much into a cancelation because there were other ones we may have changed as well." Classic smokescreen? Probably. The Jets are keeping everyone guessing.

Simpson's Future Spot Is the Real Wild Card

Alabama's Ty Simpson is the consensus No. 2 quarterback in this draft, but nobody knows where he's landing. He could go inside the first round or slip to Round 2, and Schefter reported that both the Jets and Cardinals could be looking at him. Here's the kicker: if Simpson goes in the first round, he gets a fifth-year option on his contract. That matters. The Cardinals have the No. 33 pick, which is first overall in Round 2, so they might even trade back into the first round just to grab Simpson before the Jets snag him.

The 2026 Draft is in Pittsburgh, and it's shaping up to be one wild ride. Truth and smokescreens are impossible to separate right now, but that's exactly what makes draft season so addictive.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.