Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka? Gone. Max Homa? Out. These aren't even predictions for who'll miss the cut. Based on brutal historical trends at Royal Birkdale, these guys are already out of the running for the 2026 Open before a single tee time. Honestly, the tournament feels more wide open than ever. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler hasn't been closing out wins like we expect, and World No. 2 Rory McIlroy's barely played. After Aaron Rai shocked everyone at the PGA Championship and Wyndham Clark took the U.S. Open, this final major of the year truly feels like anyone's best guess. We're talking about a field of 156 players, but who among them can actually hoist that Claret Jug?
The Ranking Ruckus That Gutted the Field
Let's talk Official World Golf Rankings, because this trend absolutely wrecked some serious contenders. The last two Open winners, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, were both top two in the world when they won. That's a strong signal. But we've also seen Brian Harman in 2023 (ranked No. 26), Zach Johnson in 2015 (No. 25), and Shane Lowry (No. 33) all win when outside the very top. Given how wild this major season has been, we're giving a little breathing room and setting our cutoff at the top 50 players in the OWGR. If you're outside that, sorry, you're out. This rule alone took out Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Brian Harman, Alex Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Jordan Smith, Sungjae Im, and Brooks Koepka. That's a huge list of talent eliminated!Royal Birkdale's Links-Golf Litmus Test
Then, we consider Royal Birkdale itself. This legendary course is hosting The Open for the 11th time, and it's the first time we're back since Jordan Spieth snatched the Claret Jug in 2017. While the course always throws new looks at players, competence on a links-golf course remains a necessity. History backs it up: nine of the last 10 Open champions had a prior top-20 finish in an Open. The only outlier was Collin Morikawa in 2021, making his debut. This trend sent another wave of players home, including J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, Sam Burns, Ludvig Åberg, Min Woo Lee, Kristoffer Reitan, Ryan Gerard, Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, J.T. Poston, Kurt Kitayama, Maverick McNealy, Bud Cauley, Alex Smalley, Jake Knapp, Sam Stevens, Joaquin Niemann, and Marco Penge. It's brutal, but that's what it takes. Now, the next big question is "What have you done for me lately?" The analysis dives into recent form, and with so many big names already out based on these first two trends, this final cut is going to be even more revealing. Who's left standing after this brutal trend analysis? We'll have to see who's truly playing at their peak right now and has the momentum to actually win this thing. The field's narrowing fast, and the Claret Jug is truly up for grabs.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.