The 2026 Home Run Derby is almost here, setting the stage at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia Monday night, a real appetizer for the All-Star Game on Tuesday. We've got eight sluggers ready to put on a show, but one name is absolutely dominating the conversation, and the betting books are sweating: Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber.
Schwarber's Dominance and the Books' Biggest Headache
This guy is on another level, leading all of MLB with a ridiculous 32 home runs this season. Seriously, 32 bombs already? That's just wild. Schwarber isn't just the favorite to win the Derby, sitting at +300 odds at BetMGM sportsbooks, he's also their biggest liability. Why? Because everyone and their grandma is backing him. He's pulled in a massive 24.8% of all wagers and a stunning 29.1% of the total dollars wagered on the event so far. People believe in the Philly slugger, and if he goes off, BetMGM is gonna feel it. Right behind him are Tampa Bay Rays powerhouse Junior Caminero at +425, and Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami, coming in at +475. These guys are serious threats, but Schwarber's early season power numbers just hit different.The Field, The Long Shots, and Our Missing King
While Schwarber's the main event, the rest of the field is packed with power, even if some of the odds are a bit spicy. Kansas City Royals right fielder Jac Caglianone is intriguing, despite having the fewest home runs among participants with 14. He's still got the next-best odds after the top three at +650. You also have Jordan Walker at +800, Bryce Harper at +850, and Ben Rice also at +850. Then there's Boston Red Sox catcher Wilson Contreras, who's definitely the longest shot on the board at 15-1. He's also seen the fewest wagers and the least money put on him, just 5.3% of bets and 2.4% of dollars. Now, for us here in the Emerald City, there's a specific pang of longing. Remember last year? Our very own Cal Raleigh, our Big Dumper, made history in 2025 as the first catcher ever to win the Home Run Derby! Man, what a moment that was, seeing him crush those balls. It was epic. But this year? Sadly, Cal isn't competing. His crown is up for grabs, and we'll just have to watch from afar as the best sluggers in the game battle it out without our Seattle hero. So, who's going to step up and claim the title? Will Schwarber live up to the hype and drain the sportsbooks? Or will one of the others surprise us? This Monday night promises fireworks, a true spectacle before the main event on Tuesday. It's going to be wild, so make sure you're tuned in to see who gets to be the 2026 Home Run Derby champion!This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.