Ten teams are projected to seriously regress from their 2025 regular-season success, and two giants are leading that charge: Ohio State and Texas A&M. FanDuel Sportsbook just dropped its 2026 win totals, and for these powerhouses, the numbers are a cold splash of water. College football has a way of pulling teams back to the middle, and while 48 of 68 Power Four teams are expected to stay within 1.5 games of their 2025 output, some programs are facing a much tougher path.
Buckeyes Staring Down a Schedule From Hell
Talk about a reality check! Ohio State went undefeated in 2025, a perfect 12 regular-season wins. Now, FanDuel says they are looking at just 9.5 wins for 2026. That is a massive dip! It is not a talent issue, no way. Ryan Day's squad is bringing back 11 total starters, with a ridiculous eight on offense alone. But listen, the schedule is an absolute beast. It is projected as one of the toughest in the entire country, loaded with six teams from CBS Sports' post-spring top 25. That is brutal. Even with all that talent, going from an unbeaten run to 9.5 wins just shows how hard that gauntlet is going to be. And get this: they are projected third in the Big Ten, behind reigning champ Indiana and Oregon. Woof. Buckeyes fans are not going to like that, especially when you remember they have lost more than two regular-season games only once since 2005. This feels wild.Aggies' Breakthrough Season Was a One-Off?
Down in College Station, the Aggies finally had that long-awaited breakthrough in 2025, hitting 11 regular-season wins. That was only the second time in program history! You would think they would build on that, right? Nope. FanDuel projects them at 8.5 wins for 2026. Why the harsh drop? Well, the SEC grind is getting even heavier with that new nine-game schedule, and A&M's gauntlet looks notably tougher than last year's. Plus, their roster took a massive hit. They matched a program record, sending 10 guys to the 2026 NFL Draft! Sure, the transfer portal helps, but losing that much talent is going to sting. It is a tough road back, especially when you consider they have averaged just 7.5 regular-season wins since joining the SEC back in 2012. That 11-win season now looks like a serious outlier. This is just how college football works, right? It is always pulling teams back toward the middle. For a few, the pendulum swings hard. Ohio State and Texas A&M are facing that brutal reality in 2026. The question now is: can they defy these projections, or are their fan bases in for a long, tough season? Next week, we will flip the script and look at the teams projected to take the biggest step forward. Get ready!This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.