Get ready for some chaos at The Open Championship because the traditional golf wisdom about leading after three rounds might just get tossed out the window. Through three rounds at Royal Birkdale, a super wild weather pattern has emerged, and it is going to flip Sunday's final round completely on its head. This isn't your average major where the guys at the top just hold on. Nah, the wind's got other plans, and it is making things incredibly tough for anyone teeing off late.
The Wind Has Been Wrecking Scorecards All Week
We've seen it all three days: the morning wave gets the good stuff, little wind, benign conditions, perfect for going low. Then BAM! The afternoon hits, the winds whip up, and scoring becomes a brutal grind. Lucas Herbert knows this firsthand. He started Friday five shots back, then dropped an 8-under 62 in the morning, and ended the day leading by two. Sam Burns was eight shots back on Friday, also delivered a record-tying round, and finished the day only three back. Ryan Fox, another morning hero, went from eight shots back of Herbert on Saturday morning to leading Herbert by one and trailing Burns by just two for Sunday. Seriously, an 8-under 62 has been carded *three times* this week, a feat never before seen at a major. This isn't just a fluke, it's a trend that's going to decide the 154th Open.Who's Actually Got a Shot on Sunday?
So, with Sunday's forecast calling for the same deal , light morning winds turning into afternoon gusts right when the leaders are out there , who's the smart money on? According to golf statistician Justin Ray and DataGolf, the winning score will likely land between -10 and -13, with -11 as the sweet spot. Given those incredible 62s, anyone at -3 or better entering Sunday's final round is absolutely in the mix for a backdoor victory. Rory McIlroy, currently at -2, has an early tee time and those ripe conditions for birdies. If he drops another 62, watch out! Justin Thomas and Robert MacIntyre, both at -3, are in an "ideal" position. They're close enough to chase -11 and capable of going on a heater with those early, calm conditions.The Leaders are Facing a Brutal Fight
Here's where it gets interesting and tough for the current top dogs. Sam Burns (-10), Si Woo Kim (-8), and Ryan Fox (-8) are leading, but they'll be teeing off right when the Royal Birkdale winds start roaring. It gets even tougher for the group at -4: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, and Shane Lowry. Schauffele has two 62s at majors. Rahm shot a 63 at the 2023 Open. Scheffler is the world No. 1 and can do anything if his putter cooperates. But here's the kicker: Scheffler tees off at 12:45 PM, Rahm and Lowry at 12:55 PM. That's prime wind-whipping time! As Lowry said, "I feel like anyone inside the top 20 will surely feel like if they have the round of their lives they feel like they can win The Open tomorrow." That means this final round is going to be an absolute slugfest, with the trophy potentially going to a guy who starts way down the leaderboard. Get ready for some wild golf, folks!This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.