Someone Built a Lottery Simulator For the NBA's New "3-2-1" Plan and It's a Complete Disaster

Adam Silver and the NBA just dropped their new "3-2-1" Lottery Reform plan, and it's already looking like a catastrophe waiting to happen. The league claims it's designed to prevent tanking, but the actual mechanics are so convoluted and broken that it might do the exact opposite of what they intended. One developer on Twitter named Dylan Jackson built a lottery simulator to show what this plan actually looks like in action, and the results are genuinely alarming.

The System Punishes Bad Teams (Which Is the Whole Point of a Lottery)

Run the simulator a few times and you'll see why this is such a mess. In one simulation, teams sitting in spots 2, 5, and 6 all plummet to the bottom of the lottery. The Nets drop to 10, the Wizards fall to 11. These aren't exactly free agent hotspots. Under this system, bad teams get trapped in purgatory with no realistic path to improvement. Meanwhile, a team sitting at pick 10 jumps all the way to number 2. A Miami team that made the Play In lands in the top 5. A Thunder team that might win back-to-back championships lands in the top 6. The Sacramento Kings? Essentially killed by this plan. The only way struggling franchises improve is through the draft, and Silver just made that nearly impossible.

Good Playoff Teams Are About to Win the Lottery

Here's where it gets truly bonkers. In another simulation, the Phoenix Suns (who just made the playoffs) get the number one overall pick. The Pelicans' first rounder heads to the Hawks, who also made the playoffs. Meanwhile, the four worst teams in the league pick no higher than eighth. The entire purpose of a lottery is to help bad teams get better, not to hand playoff teams the chance to load up on elite talent.

Think about what happens if the Warriors have a similar season to 2026. They make the Play In, then land the number one pick. Steph gets a chance to extend his career with an elite prospect. Golden State and Oklahoma City would own the first two picks of the draft. The chaos would be unprecedented.

Silver Created Problems While Trying to Fix One That Didn't Exist

Here's the thing: tanking wasn't even that big of a problem. But now, in an attempt to solve it, the NBA has created a system where bad teams can't improve through free agency (because who wants to sign there?), can't improve through trades (the new CBA made those brutal), and now can't even improve through the draft because playoff teams are jumping them for prospects. How exactly does Silver think struggling franchises survive under these conditions?

This isn't complicated. The simulator proves it. Run it a few times and you'll see something that should never happen under a fair lottery system. That's the real disaster here.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.