Someone Built a Lottery Simulator for the NBA's New Anti-Tanking Plan and the Results Are Absolutely Wild
Last night, Adam Silver and the NBA dropped their new "3-2-1" Lottery Reform plan, and yeah, it's as messy as it sounds. The league says it's designed to stop tanking, but when you actually run the numbers? It's a complete disaster waiting to happen.
Here's the thing: the plan is so complicated that most people are going to gloss right over it. So a hero on Twitter named Dylan Jackson built a Lottery Simulator based on this new system, and it shows exactly why Silver might have just broken the draft.
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In the first spin of the simulator, teams sitting in the 2, 5, and 6 spots moved all the way to the bottom of the lottery. The Nets dropped to 10, the Wizards fell to 11. Meanwhile, a team sitting at 10 jumped to number 2. A Miami team that made the Play In landed in the top 5. The Thunder, who might win back-to-back championships, still landed in the top 6 even though the Clippers also made the playoffs. The worst teams in the league? Completely boned. The Jazz didn't get totally screwed, which should tell you everything you need to know.
The Suns Get the First Pick as a Playoff Team
In the second spin, the Phoenix Suns, you know, the team that just made the playoffs, ended up with the first overall pick. The 1, 2, 3, and 4 worst teams in the league all picked no higher than 8th. That Pelicans pick is heading to the Hawks too, another team that made the playoffs. This is literally the opposite of what a lottery is supposed to do.
Imagine the Warriors Getting the Number One Pick
In the third spin, Golden State and Oklahoma City would have the first two picks in the draft. The Warriors, as a Play In team. The worst teams in the league once again got sent to the middle of the lottery. If you think that's chaos, imagine extending a star player's window by handing a playoff team the number one pick.
This is what Silver's new system does. It doesn't stop tanking. It just rewards the teams that are already good.
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This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.