Get ready to rethink your 2026 Open Championship bets, because the model that has literally nailed 17 majors just dropped a bombshell: Tommy Fleetwood, the third favorite and the lowest-ranked Englishman on the board, is set to stumble hard at Royal Birkdale. This isn't some random guess either; we're talking about a proprietary computer model that has simulated this very tournament 10,000 times, and its results are anything but ordinary.
This Model Doesn't Miss: The Proof Is in the Majors
Look, when a computer model built by DFS pro Mike McClure has a track record like this, you listen. SportsLine's proprietary model isn't just good, it's scary accurate. This thing has simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and has been dishing out picks that are consistently, unbelievably profitable. Seriously, anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns. And get this: it has nailed a ridiculous 17 majors going into this weekend. That includes the 2026 Masters, which was its fifth Masters in a row, plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. So, yeah, when this model talks, the golf world better pay attention. The 2026 Open Championship tees off on Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.Fleetwood's Royal Birkdale Nightmare and Aberg's Surprise Surge
Here's the stunner: the model is calling for Fleetwood, who's sitting at +1800 odds, to barely scrape inside the top 5. That's a huge "fade" call for someone considered a strong contender, especially on home turf. Why the cold shoulder? Fleetwood has had two top-5 finishes at the Open Championship before, sure, but he also missed the cut in 2024 and finished outside the top 10 last year. The last time this event was at Royal Birkdale, he finished a dismal 27th. Plus, he hasn't cracked better than T11 in *any* major this year. The model clearly sees better value elsewhere. Meanwhile, the same model is pointing to a shocking rise for Ludvig Aberg. Despite having longer odds at +3000 and never winning a major, Aberg is projected as a top-3 contender on the leaderboard. This will be just his third British Open appearance. That's a bold prediction, putting him ahead of guys like Scottie Scheffler, the defending Open champion and co-favorite at +750, or Rory McIlroy, who won the Masters this year and sits at +850. Other major winners this year, Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open), are also in the field, as is Jordan Spieth, who won here in 2017. Don't forget Tom Kim, fresh off a Scottish Open win, is a +6500 longshot, and Matt Fitzpatrick is at +2000. But the model's focus is on those surprising swings at the top. So, as Thursday, July 16, approaches, keep your eyes glued to Royal Birkdale. Will the model's incredible run continue, proving Fleetwood a bust and Aberg a dark horse hero? Or will the favorites somehow defy the simulations? We're about to find out, and the stakes couldn't be higher for those betting on this major.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.