Jon Rahm Is Finishing OUTSIDE the Top 5 at the U.S. Open and Nobody Is Ready For It
Alright, golf fans, buckle up because the 2026 U.S. Open is about to tee off, and the predictions coming out are absolutely wild! We're talking about a model, a LEGIT model that’s nailed 17 majors, including the 2026 Masters five times in a row, throwing out some serious curveballs for Shinnecock Hills. And the biggest shocker? It's telling us to fade Jon Rahm, one of the favorites, right out of the top five!The Model Is Calling Out a Favorite
Yeah, you heard that right. Jon Rahm, sitting there at +1300 odds and usually a lock for a deep run in a major, is projected to stumble badly. The SportsLine model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, which basically simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times, is saying Rahm won't even sniff the top five. This dude won the U.S. Open back in 2021, but since then, his best finish at this event has been a T-7. Sure, he grabbed a T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, but that was his first top-five in a major since way back in 2023. The model just isn't seeing him as a win contender this week, and honestly, if this model says to fade someone, you gotta listen. It's got a track record of being extremely profitable for anyone following its picks!
Don't Sleep on This Underdog
But wait, there's more! While one favorite is getting the cold shoulder, an unexpected name is being hyped up big time: Cameron Young. This guy, with slightly longer odds at +2000, is a top-5 contender according to the same super-accurate model. Now, Young has never snagged a major win, which makes this even more surprising, right? But check his year: two wins and six top-10 finishes already, including a T-3 performance at the Masters. The model is seeing his strong driving metrics as a perfect fit for Shinnecock Hills. If you're looking for someone to back for a win or even a top-5 finish, the data is screaming Cameron Young. This could be his breakout moment, and it’s a move nobody really expected.
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Who Else Is In The Mix?
Let's not forget about the other big names teeing off Thursday, June 18, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +500, aiming for that Career Grand Slam, which would be absolutely legendary. Rory McIlroy, who won the Masters earlier this year, is at +1200 trying to get his first U.S. Open in 15 years. Aaron Rai, this year's PGA Championship winner, is a longer shot at +650, while J.J. Spaun is the defending U.S. Open champ (+550). Brooks Koepka, who won this event at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 at 1 over, is also in the field at +3500. With these wild predictions shaking things up, this U.S. Open is shaping up to be an absolute must-watch. Will the model be right again, or will the favorites defy the numbers? We’re about to find out!
This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.