Jon Rahm, Third Favorite, Is OUT Of The Top 5? This Model Just Dropped a U.S. Open BOMBSHELL

Alright, Seattle sports fam, listen up! I know we're usually locked in on whether Julio is gonna blast one out of T-Mobile or if Sam Darnold can lead the Hawks to glory at Lumen, but you gotta hear this wildness. The 2026 U.S. Open is almost here, teeing off Thursday, June 18, over at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. And get this: a computer model, the kind that literally nails majors, just made some predictions that are gonna blow your mind. It’s not our usual green and blue, but when a model is this good, you gotta pay attention!

This Model's Track Record Is INSANE, Believe Me

Seriously, we're not talking about some random dart throw here. We're talking about SportsLine's proprietary model, built by the legendary DFS pro Mike McClure himself. This thing isn't playing around. It simulated every single PGA Tour event a mind-boggling 10,000 times. And the results? This model has a history of being straight-up profitable with its golf betting picks. How profitable, you ask? It's nailed a ridiculous 17 majors! Yeah, you heard that right, seventeen! That includes the 2026 Masters, which was its fifth Masters win in a row, plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who's been following its picks has seen some massive returns. So, when this thing talks, we listen. And what it's saying about the U.S. Open is gonna make you double-take.

The U.S. Open Shockers: Rahm Fades, Young Rises

Okay, here’s the juicy stuff, the real reason we're even talking golf. The model just finalized its 10,000 simulations for the U.S. Open, and it’s calling for some absolute curveballs. First up, a major surprise: Jon Rahm. This dude is the third favorite at +1300, a huge name, right? Well, the model says he's gonna stumble hard and finish outside the top 5. Can you believe that? The model isn't feeling him as a win contender because, get this, he hasn't finished better than T-7 at this event since his 2021 U.S. Open win. Even though he grabbed a T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, that was his first top-five in a major since way back in 2023. So, the model says fade Rahm, big time.

But wait, there's more! Another shocker from the model: Cameron Young is projected as a legit top-5 contender. This is wild because Young has never actually won a major, and his odds are a bit longer at +2200. But the numbers don't lie. Young has already racked up two wins and six top-10 finishes this year, including a T-3 performance at the Masters. His driving metrics are apparently off the charts, and that bodes super well for success at Shinnecock Hills. So, the model is screaming to back Cameron Young for a top-5 finish or even the win. This is a total shake-up, people!

So, the U.S. Open is set to tee off on Thursday, June 18, and it sounds like it's going to be absolutely nuts. We've got Rory McIlroy and Aaron Rai as the year's other major winners, J.J. Spaun as the defending U.S. Open champ, and Scottie Scheffler as the overall favorite trying to bag that Career Grand Slam. But with this model throwing out these wild predictions, you know I’m gonna be glued to the screen. Will Rahm really tank? Can Young pull off a surprise top-five? We'll find out soon enough. Get ready, Emerald City, because this U.S. Open just got a whole lot more interesting!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.