Our Mariners Won 3-1 and Nobody Is Ready For What's Happened to Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s Bat

What a ride this season has been already, and we're not even at the All-Star break yet! But you know what never stops being awesome? Our Seattle Mariners. They just took down the Baltimore Orioles last night in a tight 3-1 battle at T-Mobile Park, and honestly, that's the kind of win that makes you feel good about where we're headed. While our guys are taking care of business, the league is buzzing about some seriously wild stuff happening with a few of baseball's biggest names. And when I say wild, I mean you won't believe what's going on with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over in Toronto.

Three Homers. Seriously, *Three*?

It's mid-June, the halfway point of the season is literally days away, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is sitting on a grand total of THREE home runs for the entire season. THREE! Let that sink in. This isn't just a slow start, this is an absolute power outage for a guy who used to launch moonshots regularly. He's actually only hit one homer in his last 46 games, which is just mind-boggling.

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Sure, he's still making contact, hitting a respectable .280 batting average and getting on base with a .372 on-base percentage. He's even got a 103 OPS+, so he's still an above-average hitter overall, but the power just isn't there. He even told Sportsnet last month, "Obviously, I don't feel OK right now. I'm not feeling right, and you guys can tell that. I've been working very hard. I'm just looking to hit one ball very hard. It will stay in my head and my mind. I know things are going to change." You gotta wonder if that back issue, which made him miss two games last weekend, is part of the problem. If it is, at least they'd have an answer, right?

The Numbers Don't Lie: What's Going On With the Bat?

So, why the sudden disappearance of power? The stats tell a pretty clear story. Compared to his last few years, Vlad's contact quality is way down. His average exit velocity this season is 90.4 mph, and his 90th percentile exit velocity is 108.7 mph. That's a noticeable drop from 2024 (93.8 mph average, 110.4 mph 90th percentile) and 2025 (92.0 mph average, 110.3 mph 90th percentile). Less exit velocity means less power, plain and simple.

But there's more. He's hitting way more ground balls and pop-ups. His ground ball rate this year is 49.5%, up from 47.7% in 2024 and 47.1% in 2025. And his pop-up rate? A whopping 8.2% this season, compared to 4.2% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025. When you hit more balls into the dirt or straight up, you're just not gonna hit dingers. His sweet-spot rate, which is the percentage of optimal launch angle hits, is only 29.5% this year, well below the MLB average of 33.3%. It means he's making solid contact, but at bad angles, and that's why the balls aren't leaving the park. While other guys around the league, like Junior Caminero and a Yankees reliever saving games, are making noise, the biggest mystery is Vlad's bat.

But hey, forget about Toronto's problems for a second. We're talking about *our* Mariners! That 3-1 win against the Orioles was huge. The All-Star Game is less than a month away, the trade deadline is right behind it, and our M's are building something special. T-Mobile Park is the place to be, watching our guys like Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh go to work. The Emerald City is buzzing, and we're ready for more! Let's go, M's!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.