Our Super Bowl Champs Are Underdogs?! Model Says Rams Get the Edge, And Fans Are Going To Lose It

Okay, 12s, breathe easy for a sec. The 2026 NFL schedule just dropped, finally etched in stone after all the rumors and leaks. You know what that means: it’s time for “way-too-early” predictions. We’re talking a model that simulated the season 100,000 times, folks! And here’s the kicker: after our glorious Super Bowl win last season, this fancy model , the “NFL Projection Model” , has our division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, projected as the “better team” this year. Seriously?

The Emerald City vs. Hollywood: A Bitter Rivalry Heats Up

Remember last year? We absolutely took down the Rams , two out of three times, including that epic NFC Championship Game , en route to bringing the Lombardi home. Every single one of those three games was decided by a combined seven points, so yeah, it was tight. And home-field advantage? That probably made all the difference, with the hosts going 3-0. This year, though, the model is “a little lower on Seattle.” Even though the Seahawks actually have a slight edge in projected win total, 11.2 to the Rams’ 11.1, the Rams get the “better” playoff odds at 82 percent to our 81.3 percent. And , get this , they have better Super Bowl odds too, 14.1 percent to our 12.5 percent. What gives?!

The reasoning is tough to hear, but it makes some sense: our Super Bowl-winning squad last year was all about that nasty defense. But we’ve had some “offseason losses” on that side of the ball. Plus, former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak got snatched up by the Raiders. Mike Macdonald is one of the best coaches in football, we all know that, but the model’s author is riding with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford as Super Bowl favorites. Ouch. We’re going to have to prove them wrong on the field, no doubt about it.

Beyond Lumen Field: Lions Roar and AFC QBs Return

While we’re busy shaking our heads at the Rams projection, there’s some other wild stuff happening around the league. Remember the Detroit Lions last year? They finished 9-8 and fourth in the NFC North after losing to the Vikings on Christmas, 23-10. Rough, right? Well, this year, the model says they’re the NFC North favorite with 10.3 wins and , get this , the league’s third-easiest schedule! They apparently dealt with “a ton of injuries on defense” last year, falling from sixth-best defense by expected points added through Week 8 to 19th afterwards. A healthy defense and an easy schedule? That’s a recipe for a surprise turnaround.

And then there’s the AFC. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson all missed the AFC Championship Game last year , a first since 2017! But the model is “bullish” on all three getting back to the top. Allen’s Bills are the AFC favorites, mainly because Mahomes’ status is uncertain with a knee injury, and Jackson also missed time. But when those guys are healthy, they’re always going to find their way back. It’s still early in May, and rosters can change everything. But for now, we’ve got a target on our backs, and a model putting the “rivals” ahead. Time to get fired up for kickoff, 12s, because we’ve got something to prove.

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This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.