14 TDs For Fernando Mendoza: Why This Rookie QB Class Has the Entire League Worried

Alright 12s, buckle up! You know how we live for the draft, the hope, the fresh talent, right? Well, if the latest projections are anything to go by, this 2026 rookie QB class is shaping up to be... well, not exactly a blockbuster. We're talking seriously low impact for Year 1, and the numbers for top pick Fernando Mendoza are already raising eyebrows across the league. A mere 14 projected touchdowns? Seriously? That's what Mike Clay over at ESPN is saying, and it's got us all wondering what the heck is going on. It’s been nearly a month since the 2026 NFL Draft, and the word on the street, or rather, the projections, are in, painting a pretty stark picture for these new signal-callers.

The No. 1 Pick and a "Shaky" Outlook

Let's dive into the biggest name here: Fernando Mendoza, the Las Vegas Raiders' No. 1 overall pick. He's projected for 3,052 passing yards and only 14 touchdowns across 14 starts. Yikes. For a guy picked first overall, that’s not exactly the kind of immediate firepower you hope for. The overall sentiment is that this is an "extremely low-impact QB class," at least for Year 1. Get this: we might not even see a single rookie starter in Week 1! Think about that for a second. With only two quarterbacks going in the first round and zero in the second, it’s a weird year for fresh talent under center. History tells us that 73% of first-round QBs since 2012 take over by Week 4, and 51% start in Week 1. Even nine out of eleven first-overall picks started right out of the gate. So while Mendoza might start behind Kirk Cousins, the numbers suggest he'll be on the field within a month. Still, those 14 projected touchdowns tell a tale of a "shaky wide receivers room" in Las Vegas, according to the analysis. When you compare Mendoza's projection to the average of 32 rookie QBs who played at least 12 games since 2012, his yardage is spot-on with their 3,051-yard average, but his 14 TDs fall short of their 16.7 average.

Beyond the Top Pick: A Long Road Ahead

If the top pick is struggling for immediate impact, what does that mean for the rest of the class? It means even less action, probably. Carson Beck, a third-round pick for the Arizona Cardinals, is projected for a measly 448 yards and 3 touchdowns in just 2 starts. Yikes, again. Cade Klubnik, a fourth-rounder for the New York Jets, is looking at an even lower 143 yards and 1 touchdown with zero starts. Then there’s Ty Simpson, taken at No. 13 overall by the Los Angeles Rams, who's projected for 146 yards and 1 touchdown with zero starts. He's considered a developmental player, meaning we won't see him much in 2026 unless Matthew Stafford gets hurt or needs a rest. It's a tough road for these guys, especially those not picked early. Since 2012, only six quarterbacks *not* drafted in the first two rounds have appeared in more than 10 games in their rookie year. Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew II, and Russell Wilson are the big names who pulled that off. Beck and Klubnik might get a few starts if their teams totally fall apart, but don't hold your breath. So what does all this mean for us, the fans who bleed blue and green? It means that while our own guys like Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Rashid Shaheed are out there grinding, this 2026 rookie QB class might not be throwing any immediate wrenches into the league hierarchy. It’s a reminder that building a winner takes time, and sometimes, even the top draft picks need a minute. With the season fast approaching, you gotta wonder if these projections will hold up, or if some dark horse rookie will shock us all. We'll be watching every snap, every game, ready to cheer on our Hawks and see how these fresh faces actually perform when the real lights come on. Go Hawks!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.