An NBA Insider Built a Lottery Simulator and the Results Are Absolutely Brutal For Bad Teams

Adam Silver just dropped the NBA's new "3-2-1" Lottery Reform plan and a Twitter user named Dylan Jackson decided to actually show us what it means. What he found? This thing is a disaster that's going to wreck the league worse than the tanking problem it was supposed to solve.

The plan is so complicated that most people probably skimmed it and moved on. But Jackson built a simulator so you could actually see what happens when you spin this wheel. Run it a few times and the reality gets terrifying real quick.

Spin One: Welcome to Basketball Purgatory

The simulator ran a scenario where teams in the 2, 5, and 6 spots got sent all the way to the bottom of the lottery. The Nets dropped to 10, the Wizards landed at 11. Meanwhile a team sitting at 10 jumps to number 2, Miami (a Play In team) lands in the top 5, and Oklahoma City (possibly a back-to-back championship team) somehow ends up in the top 6.

Here's the thing: Sacramento, Indiana, Memphis, Brooklyn, and Washington aren't exactly free agent hotspots. Under this system, bad teams get stuck being bad forever. They can't trade their way out. They can't draft their way out. They're just trapped.

Spin Two and Three: Playoff Teams Getting Top Picks

In another spin, Phoenix makes the playoffs and lands the number 1 pick. The Suns. In the playoffs. With the first overall selection. That's the exact opposite of what a lottery is supposed to do.

The worst teams in the league kept getting pushed down to picks 5 through 8, while good teams that made the postseason jumped them. The Hawks got a top pick even though they made the Play In. Golden State got the first two picks despite being a Play In team.

Silver claims he created this system to stop tanking in March. But if bad teams can't improve through free agency, can't get assets through trades, and can't even get decent draft picks anymore, how exactly are they supposed to get better? The answer is they're not. This "fix" didn't solve tanking. It created something way worse.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.