Bailey vs. Reese at No. 2: The Draft Betting Market Is Losing Its Mind
The NFL draft is tonight, and the one pick everyone's actually betting on is not the first one. While Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is locked in at the top for Las Vegas, the New York Jets hold the second overall selection, and bettors cannot decide whether they want Texas Tech linebacker David Bailey or Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese.
This is not a slow burn. This is chaos. On Thursday morning, Bailey flipped to a -135 favorite over Reese at +105 on DraftKings. Just one day earlier, Reese was the favorite at -400. The odds have been swinging almost daily as reports leak out of Jets camp and mock drafts drop. It is wild.
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At Caesars Sportsbook, the No. 2 pick has attracted more bets and more money than literally any other draft market. Not the third pick, not the fifth, not the flashy wide receiver slot. Number two. Circa Sports reported a flurry of bets on Bailey early Tuesday morning that moved him from underdog to favorite in minutes. That is the kind of action you see when sharp money moves.
Joey Feazel, the lead football trader at Caesars, told ESPN the contrast with the first pick is stark. "We have seen very minimal action on the first pick," Feazel said. "Since the national championship, it's been clear who the Raiders wanted to lead their team for the future." Mendoza is a -20,000 favorite to go No. 1, meaning you have to risk 20 grand to win 100 bucks. Few bettors are willing to pay that price.
One Linebacker, Two Totally Different Narratives
The real story here is what these swings tell you about the Jets' thinking. Are they locking in Bailey? Or is Reese their guy? Meanwhile, Reese held the favorite to be the No. 3 pick Thursday morning, and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love was favored at No. 4. The board is moving fast.
Tonight, we get answers. Kickoff is at the draft, and the Jets are about to tell us everything we need to know.
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This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.