Ben Rice Is Crushing Right-Handed Fastballs and the Orioles Have No Answer Monday

Happy Monday, baseball bettors. If you're looking to cash in on home runs today, we've got some solid targets on a six-game slate that's light on ideal hitting environments. But there are a couple of matchups worth your money on Hard Rock Bet. Let's break down the best home run predictions for May 11 and find the spots where hitters can do damage.

Ben Rice at Plus-250: The Yankees' Secret Weapon at Camden Yards

Start here. The New York Yankees roll into Baltimore to face the Orioles, and Baltimore is sending right-hander Brandon Young to the mound. Young is below average in basically everything that matters. He carried a 6.24 ERA across 57.2 innings last season and is sitting at 4.35 this year. His hard-hit rate allowed and ground-ball rate allowed both rank below league average. That's the kind of pitcher you want to attack.

Here's where it gets interesting: Young is throwing his fastball about 50 percent of the time to left-handed hitters this season, and lefties are posting a .200 ISO and .228 expected ISO against him. Against his fastball specifically, Young is allowing a staggering .307 expected ISO to lefties. That matchup screams Ben Rice.

Rice carries an absurd .357 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. In a small sample of 21 plate appearances against fastballs from righties, his ISO sits at an unsustainable .789. The guy has been slaughtering the baseball all year, and the breakout that evaluators pegged for him is clearly happening. At plus-250, Rice is priced almost as tight as Aaron Judge at plus-230 on Hard Rock Bet, and Judge typically has the shortest odds on most slates aside from Shohei Ohtani. That tells you everything about how the market feels about Rice's matchup today. He's my top home run play for Monday.

Evan Carter at Plus-700: A Long Shot With Long-Ball Potential in Arlington

Now head to Globe Life Field, where the Texas Rangers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a game projected in the mid-70s with the roof likely open. This is shaping up to be one of the better-hitting environments on the slate.

Mike Soroka has an ERA of 4.14, but the underlying metrics are screaming regression. His expected ERA is 5.00, and he ranks in just the 13th percentile in barrel rate allowed at 12.1 percent according to Baseball Savant. Soroka is also below league average in ground-ball rate and hard-hit rate allowed. Lefties are slugging .500 against him this year. While he's only allowed a .163 ISO to left-handed hitters, his expected ISO against them sits at .250. He's getting lucky.

Soroka throws his fastball 40 percent of the time to left-handed hitters, which makes him predictable. That's exactly the profile you want to target for a home run play. Evan Carter has homered in two of his last five games and has hit all five of his home runs this season against right-handed pitching. At plus-700 on Hard Rock Bet, Carter should probably be closer to 4-to-1 in this spot. That's why he's my main long-shot play of the day.

Other Names Worth Considering

If you want to widen the net on the Yankees side against Young's fastball-heavy approach, Jazz Chisholm Jr. makes some sense. He posted a .267 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season and you can grab him at north of plus-400 on Hard Rock Bet, even if his 2026 season has been pretty brutal so far. Trent Grisham is another option. The lefty posted a .251 ISO overall last season and a .240 ISO against right-handed fastballs according to AddMoreFunds.

On the Rangers side, Corey Seager at plus-350 is the obvious alternate to Carter. Both Seager and Carter carry strong ISOs against right-handed fastballs this season, exactly the pitch

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.