The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are wasting zero time after the All-Star break, kicking off the second half of the 2026 MLB season tonight, Thursday, July 16. This isn't just another game, it's the *only* baseball hitting the field, which means all eyes, and all prop bets, are on this NL East rivalry. SportsLine MLB expert Adam Thompson just dropped his best home run picks for tonight, putting serious heat on Bryce Harper and Juan Soto to go yard. This guy, Thompson, he's no joke, racking up over 70 units in MLB and 60 units in the NBA over the past two seasons. He’s an analytics wizard who exploits matchups, and he's seeing something big.
Harper Wants His Derby Redemption, And The Numbers Don't Lie
Look, Bryce Harper getting bounced early from the Home Run Derby on Monday? You know that stung. He probably felt Kyle Schwarber ribbing him hard. Now, at 33, Harper is having a serious power surge, not just "doing okay." He's already blasted 20 home runs through 97 games, putting him on pace for around 35 dingers this season. That's the kind of power he was cranking out in his mid-20s prime, which is absolutely wild to see him back at that level. And get this: when he faced Mets pitcher Christian Scott on June 27, yeah, Scott held the Phillies to two runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 6-2 New York win. But guess who hit the *one* home run Scott gave up? Yep, Harper. The man knows how to hit him. His OPS at Citizens Bank Park is a ridiculous .924, over 100 points higher than his road split. You pair that with a Mets bullpen that's given up a league-high 13 home runs in July, and you've got a recipe for Harper to go absolutely nuclear. He's looking to make a statement, and the Mets' bullpen is practically begging for it.Soto Is Ready To Feast On Nola's Struggles
Then you've got Juan Soto, and he's got his own target locked on. Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola has had a brutal season, no sugar coating it. His 3-6 record is rough, and that 5.75 ERA over 19 starts? Ouch. It gets worse: he’s rocking a 6.11 ERA in his last seven outings, and a painful 6.81 ERA in his eight home starts. While he’s only allowed one home run in his last two starts, before that, he was giving up *two* dingers in each of the four starts. And guess who crushed him on June 18 against the Mets? You guessed it: Soto, hitting both of those long balls. Soto has a career total of five home runs off Nola, with a lifetime 1.142 OPS against him. That's not just a good matchup, that's a *historical* matchup advantage. Add in the Phillies' bullpen, which is sporting a horrendous 8.05 ERA and has coughed up eight home runs this month, and you've got all the ingredients for Soto to go deep. Nola's struggles, plus a leaky bullpen, are a perfect storm for Soto to tee off. Tonight is all about who steps up after the break. Harper wants to erase that Derby memory with a bomb, and Soto wants to keep Nola’s tough season rolling right along. Both these guys are due for fireworks, and we can't wait to see who delivers!This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.