Cal Raleigh Is About to Prove 2025 Was Just the Beginning
Look, we all know what Cal Raleigh just did. Sixty home runs. Second place in the AL MVP race. The guy who dragged the Mariners to their first division title in 24 years while literally squatting behind the plate. That's not a season. That's a legacy moment. But here's the thing nobody's really talking about: can he do it again in 2026?
From Solid to Sensational Overnight
Before last year, Raleigh was the definition of consistency. Not flashy, just reliable. Over the three seasons leading into 2025, he hit 27, 30, and 34 home runs respectively, posting a WAR between 3.4 and 4.7. He was the Mariners' steady rock. But he wasn't their best player. That was Julio Rodriguez, the three-time All-Star who's been top-seven in MVP voting three times in his four-year career. Then Raleigh went off in 2025 and basically rewrote what's possible for a catcher in this league. He slashed .247/.359/.948 with a ridiculous 9.1 WAR and, get this, didn't allow a single passed ball all season. That's not just good. That's historic.
The Experts Are All In
MLB Network just ranked Raleigh fourth in all of baseball, behind only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Bobby Witt Jr. For context, he was 59th last season. ESPN has him at seventh. That's not hype for hype's sake. That's the baseball world saying he's officially elite now.
But will he keep it up? ESPN's David Schoenfield crunched the numbers on 23 players who hit 50-plus homers exactly once in their career. Their average drop to their second-highest total was 13 home runs. Based on that, Schoenfield predicts Raleigh hits 47 homers in 2026. Baseball Reference is a bit more conservative, projecting 39 home runs with 21 doubles and 96 RBI, which would still be fantastic but a noticeable step back from last year's 125.
The Maris Comparison Looms Large
Here's what makes this interesting: there's almost no precedent for what Raleigh did. Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge, McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, they all had huge seasons before their record-breaking ones. Roger Maris? He'd never hit more than 39 homers before going nuclear with 61 in 1961. Raleigh's closer to Maris, except he was doing it as a catcher, which makes the whole thing even more absurd.
The Mariners fell one game short of the World Series. They're loaded. They don't need Raleigh to be an MVP candidate to make another run. But if he's an All-Star-caliber catcher putting up monster numbers? That could be the difference between a playoff spot and staying home.
I'm betting on another monster season. Maybe not 50, but the mid to high 40s seems right. Welcome to the new era of Mariners baseball.
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This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.