Caleb Downs Is About to Break the Giants' Four-Year Draft Prediction Streak, and Nobody Sees It Coming

Here's something wild: for four straight years, the top player on ESPN's most likely Giants draft pick list has been exactly who the team selected. Evan Neal in 2022. Deonte Banks. Malik Nabers. Abdul Carter. Then they nailed it again when New York traded back into the first round for Jaxson Dart at quarterback last year. It's the kind of predictive hot streak that feels impossible to maintain. But this year might be the year it finally breaks, and Caleb Downs could be the reason why.

This Draft Is Completely Upside Down

The 2026 draft is genuinely weird. The best talent is clustered at positions that teams usually don't prioritize early: Jeremiyah Love at running back, Sonny Styles at inside linebacker, Caleb Downs at safety, and Olaivavega Ioane at guard. That's not how draft boards normally work. Premium positions like quarterback, offensive tackle, and wide receiver usually command top-10 real estate. Not this year.

Giants GM Joe Schoen acknowledged the strangeness during his pre-draft news conference. "Maybe it's not the surplus positions or the higher-paying positions when you get into free agency at the top of this year's draft," Schoen said. "We're going to take the best player available and we're not going to rule any of those positions out."

Taking a Safety at No. 5 Would Be Absolutely Unprecedented

The Giants have the fifth pick. A safety is entirely possible with that selection. A guard seems plausible with their second first-round pick at No. 10. But here's what makes it extreme: only two safeties in the entire 21st century have been selected in the top five. Sean Taylor. Eric Berry. That's it. Guard is nearly as rare in the top 10, with only four guards ever cracking that territory this century: Quenton Nelson, Brandon Scherff, Jonathan Cooper, and Chance Warmack.

"I could never do it," one NFL executive said recently about the possibility of taking Downs that high. The fact that an executive can't even imagine it happening tells you everything about how unconventional this draft really is.

The Giants' prediction streak is legendary. But this year, this weird draft, and this talent board might finally reset the clock.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.