The 2026 World Cup has already smashed records for soccer wagers this past month, and trust me, that insane action is only going to ramp up. We're down to the final four teams, and guess what? They just happen to be the top four teams in FIFA's world rankings. Caesars Sports head of soccer trading, Mark Bickerdike, said it best: "Records continue to fall, and we expect that to continue in the semifinals and the final. We had high expectations for the tournament as a whole. But we’re surpassing those expectations." You love to see it, unless you're a sportsbook, because France is making them sweat big time.
France Is The Public's Darling, And It's Costing Books Big
France has been the favorite to win this whole thing from the jump, and they're still holding strong at +145 to lift the trophy. Spain is the next best bet at +340. So yeah, something's gotta give when France and Spain clash on Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET in Arlington, Texas. The three-way moneyline for that game opened with France as a +120 favorite, with Spain at +225 and a Draw at +230. By Monday afternoon, France had nudged to +127, Spain to +215, and Draw to +215. But here's where it gets wild: on the "To Advance" market, 80% of the money and 65% of the bets are on France. Think about that for a second! Spain is seeing just 35% of bets and a meager 20% of the money to qualify. "Our customers have been impressed by France’s attacking and talent," Bickerdike noted. He also pointed out that action on a Draw is higher than usual in these late stages, which is always good news for the books. Both England and Argentina went to extra time in the quarterfinals, so people are definitely thinking about it.Books Are Rooting Hard For Spain To Shut Down Mbappé
So, with all that money pouring in on France, who do the sportsbooks actually *want* to win? It's not France. Bickerdike didn't mince words: "Spain, both in the match and in the tournament winner book. France is the biggest liability for us in the futures." That's right, the public's excitement over France's attacking talent has put the books in a precarious position. The biggest reason for that liability? Kylian Mbappé. The man is absolutely electric, tied for the tournament lead with eight goals alongside Argentina's Lionel Messi. Everyone wants to see Mbappé light it up again, making him an "extremely popular play" in the anytime goalscorer market. If Spain wants to make the books happy, they're going to have to figure out a way to completely shut down Mbappé. Good luck with that! Tuesday's France-Spain showdown in Arlington is going to be absolutely massive, not just for the teams, but for every sportsbook out there. Can France keep rolling, or will Spain pull off the upset that the books are desperately hoping for? And don't forget Wednesday's England-Argentina clash. The stakes couldn't be higher, and we're about to see who truly wants it more in these nail-biting semifinals.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.