Jon Rahm Won't Crack The Top 5 At The U.S. Open: Why The Odds Are Totally Wrong

Alright, golf fans, buckle up because the 2026 U.S. Open is about to tee off, and a crazy computer model just dropped some bombshell predictions that are gonna mess with everyone's head. You know SportsLine's model, right? The one built by DFS guru Mike McClure? Yeah, *that* model. It's so good it’s nailed 17 majors already, including the 2026 Masters, its fifth in a row! Well, it simulated the U.S. Open 10,000 times, and the results for Shinnecock Hills are absolutely wild. The biggest shocker? It's telling us to fade Jon Rahm, the third favorite at +1300, saying he’ll stumble and finish *outside* the top 5! Seriously, outside the top 5!

Rahm's Risky Road to Shinnecock

Think about that for a second. Jon Rahm, a guy who won the U.S. Open in 2021, a guy sitting at +1300 odds, is apparently going to fall flat. The model isn't just pulling this out of thin air, either. Since that 2021 win, Rahm hasn't finished better than T-7 at this event. Sure, he grabbed a T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, but the data says that was his first top-five in a major since 2023. The model, cold and calculating, simply doesn't see him as a win contender this week. This is a huge call against a player most golf heads would have penciled into their top tier. Your parlay card might need a rewrite after hearing this, buddy!

Cameron Young: The Surprise Top-5 Contender

But wait, there's more! If that Rahm prediction wasn't enough to make you spit

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out your coffee, get this: the model is calling for Cameron Young to be a top-5 contender! Yes, *that* Cameron Young. He's got slightly longer odds at +2200 and he's never actually won a major, which makes this pick even more jaw-dropping. But don't sleep on the guy. Young has been quietly tearing it up this year, racking up two wins and six top-10 finishes. Remember that T-3 performance at the Masters? The model sure does, and it clearly sees something special brewing for him at Shinnecock Hills. This kid could really shake things up.

Who Else Is Chasing The Crown?

So, with Rahm potentially out of the picture and Young surging, who else is in the mix for this epic 2026 U.S. Open? Scottie Scheffler is the favorite, sitting pretty at +550 as he tries to complete the Career Grand Slam. Rory McIlroy, this year's Masters champion, is right there at +1200, hoping to nab his first U.S. Open in 15 years. And don't forget J.J. Spaun, the defending champion, or Brooks Koepka, who actually won this event at 1 over the last time it was held at Shinnecock Hills back in 2018. The field is absolutely stacked, making these computer-generated curveballs all the more fascinating. The 2026 U.S. Open kicks off on Thursday morning at 6:35 a.m. ET from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. You absolutely gotta tune in to see if this super-smart model continues its incredible streak of accuracy. Will Rahm defy the numbers, or will Young become the unexpected star? It's going to be wild, and I'll be watching every shot, just like you!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.