Josh Allen is absolutely in a league of his own when it comes to fantasy football quarterbacks this season, projected to score a ridiculous 25.2 Fantasy points per game. That's a huge number, and what makes it even crazier is that no other quarterback on Heath Cummings' tier list projects above 24 FPPG. We're talking about a guy who has been a top three QB after Week 17 in each of the past four seasons. The dude is just built different for fantasy, and this year, he's getting his own tier because the numbers demand it.
Allen's Unmatched Ceiling and Draft Strategy
This kind of dominance makes Allen a massive target, but it also means you'll pay a premium. His passing numbers have dipped a bit with Joe Brady calling plays, and now Brady is the head coach. The big question is whether that run-heavy approach was Brady's call or Sean McDermott's. If Brady loosens the reins, we could easily see Allen hitting 28 FPPG, especially with DJ Moore now in the mix. So, when should you pull the trigger on this fantasy monster? Cummings suggests considering Allen in Round 2 of your drafts, right after the top 12 running backs and wide receivers are off the board, and after Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are gone too. That's a serious investment, but for a guy with this kind of floor and ceiling, it might be worth it.The Tier 2 Scramble and Surprising Value Picks
After Allen, Tier 2 is a bit of a crowded house, packed with guys like Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. These quarterbacks all project between 22.6 and 23.7 FPPG, and honestly, any one of them could finish as the QB2 on the season. Jackson has shown the most upside, with a couple of seasons over 30 FPPG, but he hasn't been as reliable lately. Both Burrow and Daniels have huge upside too, but they've both had some injury history that makes you pause. The real sweet spots in this tier are Hurts and Prescott, who are often available two or three rounds after Jackson and Maye. That's why Cummings is more comfortable drafting these Tier 2 guys in Round 5 or Round 6, rather than burning a Round 4 pick on the top of the tier.Sleepers and Wildcards Who Could Pop Off
Tier 3 brings us some really intriguing names like Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Caleb Williams. Purdy and Goff are the true outliers here; their CBS ADPs are outside the top 100, which is why they made Cummings' "Sleepers 2.0" column. Purdy especially has way more upside than most fantasy managers realize. He was the QB1 on a per-game basis after Week 17 last year and ranks as QB4 per-game over the last three weeks. Plus, don't forget that wild "anything is possible" tier with Kyler Murray, Malik Willis, and Baker Mayfield. You never know what could happen there! So, when you're on the clock in a few weeks, keep these tiers in mind. Are you ponying up for Allen's unmatched ceiling, or playing the waiting game for a Tier 2 value or a Tier 3 sleeper like Purdy? Your draft could hinge on it, fantasy fam.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.