Kylian Mbappe sits as the top contender for the 2026 World Cup Golden Ball, but Lionel Messi is breathing down his neck in a race that oddsmakers say is incredibly close as the tournament hits the semifinal stage. This isn't just about individual brilliance anymore; it's about which team can survive these next brutal matchups, and that's where things get really tense for Messi's Argentina.
Mbappe's Edge: Assists and a Solid Squad
Here's the deal: both Mbappe and Messi have hammered in eight goals each in this World Cup. That's insane production! But Mbappe's got one more assist than Messi as we head into the semis. That extra helper could be huge for the Golden Ball, which is awarded to the best player and is a bit more subjective than the Golden Boot. France is also looking super strong, favored to win their third World Cup title. They've got a killer attacking squad with Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue. Dembele himself has five goals, making him France's second-best scorer. While both Mbappe and Messi account for 50% of their team's goals, Argentina's second-best scorer is Lautaro Martinez with only two tallies. It's clear Mbappe has a way better supporting cast, which means he's more likely to get the service and opportunities. France, or Les Bleus, are also way more likely to reach the final, giving Mbappe two more chances to shine. Argentina, on the other hand, has been "hanging on by a thread" in the knockout stage, looking like they're "one or two plays away from being sent home." Spain would need their best performance of the tournament just to eliminate France. That's a huge factor for Mbappe's chances.Don't Sleep On These Longshots (If You're Feeling Brave)
While it feels like a two-horse race, Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Lamine Yamal are still out there, especially if you're looking for some serious value. Bellingham, particularly, offers great value if you think England can take down Argentina in the semis. He's got six goals, including four in his last two matches, and he gets credit for tracking back defensively, which helps his all-around player case. Kane is in the running too, but Bellingham's goals have just come in bigger situations. They both have one assist. Olise is a French orchestrator, but his numbers just don't stack up for this honor compared to his teammate Mbappe. Then there's Lamine Yamal. He was a potential breakout star after Euro 2024 but started slow while battling a hamstring injury. His stock would absolutely skyrocket if Spain pulls off a massive upset against France. Spain has only conceded one goal so far, which is impressive, but beating France is a whole other beast. So, who's it gonna be? Mbappe feels like the safest pick, especially since he's also favored for the Golden Boot. But soccer is wild, and with the semifinals kicking off Tuesday, July 14, and Wednesday, July 15, anything can happen. We're about to see who truly steps up with a spot in the final on the line.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.