Paul Skenes, the dude who has been the absolute definition of consistency with ERAs under 2.00 his first two years, just clocked in at a 3.57 ERA heading into the All-Star Break for the 2026 season. Seriously, a 3.57! This reigning NL Cy Young winner has been on a total rollercoaster ride this year, kicking it all off with his career-worst outing on Opening Day. It's a massive shift from the guy who posted a 1.96 ERA as a rookie and a 1.97 ERA last year. What gives, right?
The Velo Dip and the Losing Streak
For a guy known for his absolute heat, Skenes has seen his velocity dip this season, and you could feel it on the mound. There was a stretch where the Pirates lost nine straight starts from him, which is just brutal. Nine straight! Despite all that, he still snagged his third All-Star nod, which tells you he's still got that elite stuff, even when he isn't exactly "himself." But when he spoke about it at the All-Star Game in Philadelphia, he wasn't sounding stressed. "I don't think velocity is something I need to pitch well," Skenes told MLB.com, adding, "I think it's probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It's not something that I'm stressed over at all. I'm healthy. I'm feeling good and still pitching at a high level." It's good he's healthy, but you can't ignore those numbers.The "Weird" Stats That Tell a Story
Here's where it gets interesting, because while the ERA is glaring, the advanced stats paint a slightly different, albeit still concerning, picture. Skenes' 3.57 ERA is significantly higher than his 2.88 FIP and a 2.72 xERA, meaning he's gotten a bit unlucky. His 66.3 percent strand rate is the lowest of his entire career and well below the MLB average, which means runners are scoring way more often when he's on the basepaths. He knows it's weird, too. "It was a really interesting first half, because I don't think I've thrown the ball poorly," Skenes said. He added that his "strikeout rate is in a very good spot. The walk rate is in a good spot. Not giving up hard contact consistently. For whatever reason, the ERA is a little higher. Not something I'm losing any sleep over. It's just been kind of a weird first half in that sense." He sounds confident, but the scoreboard doesn't lie. The Pirates are deep in the playoff hunt, and it's their elite offense that's really carrying the load right now. They need Skenes, their ace, to find his groove in the second half if they seriously want to make a run at the postseason. He knows he's capable of more, calling his first half "probably a B." He’s looking at it as a learning experience, saying, "Not terrible. Could have been better. I think I've learned a lot. Interesting first half." That's the kind of attitude you want from your ace. The next game is critical, and Skenes has to prove he's the guy who can lead them all the way.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.