Twenty-four passing touchdowns. That's the gut-check number floating around Chiefs Kingdom for Patrick Mahomes in 2026, and if you're a fan in Kansas City, that's gotta sting a bit. Last year, Mahomes threw for just 23 scores, a number that left a lot of folks scratching their heads given his talent. Now, with a torn ACL recovery looming and a receiving corps that's raising more questions than answers, that 24 feels less like a floor and more like a warning.
Gut Feelings and Missed Predictions
Rewind to 2025, and there was a lot of buzz around this Chiefs offense. We were all-in on almost every metric except rushing touchdowns, where we nailed the under on 17.75. But that was about it for bragging rights. We whiffed big time on Mahomes hitting over 29 passing touchdowns, and we totally missed the mark on the team scoring more than 26.43 points per game. Injuries played a role, sure, but it wasn't the whole story. This year, the crystal ball is out, but the plan is simpler: it's all about gut feelings and the team's vibe, ditching the historical data for something a bit more visceral.Mahomes, the Receivers, and the Red Zone Poachers
So, about those 24 passing touchdowns for Mahomes in 2026. You just say "Patrick Mahomes touchdowns," right? Because nobody's seriously expecting Justin Fields, who threw only seven touchdowns in nine games in 2025, to add much, even if he starts the first couple of weeks. Normally, Mahomes is the wild card, the guy who can drop five touchdowns on you out of nowhere. He still has that magic. But the dude is recovering from a torn ACL, and that's a huge consideration. Then you've got this supposedly "explosive" running game, with free agent Kenneth Walker and rookie Emmett Johnson. They're definitely going to cut into those red zone passing touchdowns, no doubt about it. And let's not even start on the receiving corps. They underperformed in 2025 and honestly, they don't look any better for 2026. One "proven" wide receiver spent his offseason rehabbing a knee injury in jail, and the other, Xavier Worthy, is undersized and couldn't stay healthy last year. Seriously, this is what they're working with? Mahomes didn't start all 17 games in 2025, and there's no guarantee he will in 2026. Mix that uncertainty with the new running backs stealing red zone glory, and you can see why the feeling is "skittish" about the passing game's numbers this year. This Chiefs offense has some serious question marks heading into 2026, especially with their main guy coming off a major injury. Can Mahomes overcome the ACL, the receiving woes, and the red zone poachers to lift that passing TD number? Or will the run game, which was 20th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2025 with 15, actually carry the load? It's gonna be a wild ride, and every snap will tell us if that gut feeling holds up.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.