Peterson or Dybantsa at No. 1? NBA Scouts Are Split, and It's Going to Come Down to Draft Day

The NBA regular season still has more than a week left to play, but league executives have already checked out mentally. Their eyes are on May 10, when the lottery happens and the draft order gets set for what could be a special 2026 class. With the men's Final Four coming this weekend, scouts and execs are locked in on who goes first: BYU wing AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, or Duke forward Cameron Boozer. We asked more than a dozen of them what they're thinking, and the consensus? This is closer than it looks.

Dybantsa's Upside Is Too Much to Pass Up

Ask most scouts who goes No. 1, and they lean Dybantsa. A Western Conference general manager put it bluntly: "I guess you'd rather fail with [AJ] and his upside, than not. I just think that [AJ], because he's 6-9 and he could be like 6-10, 230 pounds by the time he's 25 years old, he could just be a monster. I think you've just got to go down swinging with him if you go down." That's the vibe in the room right now. The physical projection, the potential to be a unicorn at his position? Teams see the ceiling and they're willing to take the risk.

But Peterson's Talent Might Be Too Good to Ignore

Here's where it gets interesting. An Eastern Conference executive made the case for Peterson: "I think Peterson is the most talented guy, but the injury stuff is a real question. That's a valid concern, and it's been a weird year. But he's a huge talent, and he was No. 1 at the start of the season for a reason." Peterson's freshman season was all over the place. Flashes of brilliance mixed with injury absences and stretches where he just didn't impact the floor. The talent is undeniable. The durability question? That's what scouts are wrestling with.

Don't Sleep on Boozer's Historic Numbers

Then there's Boozer. Duke's forward just wrapped one of the best statistical seasons in college basketball history. He's the only player in the country to crack the top 12 in both scoring (22.5 points per game) and rebounding (10.2 per game). That carried the Blue Devils within one 35-foot miracle of the Final Four. Some execs are eyeing him as the guy, even if he's not the consensus choice.

A Western Conference executive summed it up: "I think this draft is, in some ways, similar to the 2024 Risacher year, but on a higher level. That year it was like, 'Is anyone going to be really good?' This year, it's like, 'Well, there's a lot of guys.' You have high confidence that at least multiple guys are going to hit." The talent pool is stacked. The lottery will shake things up. Come June, one of these three is going to hear their name first.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.