Renegade Drew Post No. 1 at the Kentucky Derby and Nobody's Won From There Since 1986

Here's the thing about the Kentucky Derby: sometimes the worst draw in horse racing is the one that looks the easiest. Last Saturday at Churchill Downs, that curse landed on Renegade, the 3-year-old colt trained by Todd Pletcher who drew the inside post position for this Saturday's 152nd running of the race.

Renegade will break from gate No. 1, meaning he's closest to the rail. Yeah, the shortest path to the finish line is right there. But that also means he's got to navigate around up to 19 other horses trying to squeeze in at the start without getting boxed in. It's a nightmare scenario. The last horse to win from that post? Ferdinand, back in 1986, with legendary jockey Bill Shoemaker in the saddle. That's 40 years of futility.

The Favorite Has Never Finished Out of the Money

Here's why Renegade is still the horse to beat despite the jinx: he's a machine. Churchill Downs' morning-line oddsmaker Nick Tammaro set him as the 4-1 favorite, and for good reason. In five career starts, Renegade has never finished out of the money. He placed twice and showed once during his 2-year-old campaign, then won both races this year, including the Arkansas Derby a month ago.

The field is loaded though. The co-second choices both sit at 6-1 odds: Further Ado and Commandment, both trained by Brad Cox, a Louisville native. Commandment has won four straight, capped off by the Florida Derby on March 28, while Further Ado absolutely destroyed the competition with an 11-length win in the Blue Grass Stakes a week later at Keeneland. Commandment drew the sixth post, but Further Ado got stuck way out in the 17th gate after Silent Tactic was scratched on Wednesday.

The Longshots Banking on History

Chad Brown's Emerging Market is eyeing his own historic moment. The colt, sitting at 15-1 odds, won the Louisiana Derby in just his second start. But here's the weight: the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby in just a third career start? Leonatus, all the way back in 1883. That's a 143-year streak Brown thinks his horse can end.

"He has such a wonderful mind and is so calm and collected," Brown said about his entry, which drew the 15th gate.

Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) also drawing serious interest. Bill Mott, who won last year's Derby with Sovereignty, is adding blinkers to Chief Wallabee hoping it tightens up his race. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 before finishing second in the Florida Derby three weeks later.

Bob Baffert has a pair of longshots seeking his record seventh Derby win. Litmus Test is 30-1 after a seventh-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, while Potente sits at 20-1 after losing the Santa Anita Derby to So Happy (15-1).

Twenty horses are currently entered with three also-eligibles. Great White joined the field Wednesday. The Kentucky Derby goes Saturday at Churchill Downs. One horse is about to either break a curse or add another chapter to it.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.