Someone Built a Lottery Simulator for the NBA's New Plan and It Proves Adam Silver Just Made Everything Worse

Adam Silver dropped the NBA's new "3-2-1" Lottery Reform plan last night, and it's already looking like a complete disaster. The whole thing is so complicated that most people probably haven't even bothered to read through all the percentages and odds. But someone on Twitter did us all a favor and built a Lottery Simulator to show exactly how bad this actually gets.

The Simulator Spins Show the Real Damage

A Twitter user named Dylan Jackson created this visual tool, and running it a few times makes it crystal clear just how devastating this system could be. Take Spin #1: Teams sitting in the 2, 5, and 6 spots? They all get sent to the bottom of the lottery. The Nets drop to 10. The Wizards fall to 11. Meanwhile, a team in the 10 spot jumps all the way to 2, a Play In team from Miami lands in the top 5, and somehow a team that might win back to back championships makes the top 6. That's not fixing tanking. That's chaos.

Spin #2 gets even worse. The Phoenix Suns, who just made the actual playoffs, land the 1st overall pick. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th worst teams in the entire league don't pick higher than 8th. The whole point of the lottery is supposed to help bad teams get better, not hand lottery picks to teams that already made the postseason. But sure, the Kings didn't get destroyed this time, so that's something.

What This Actually Accomplishes

Spin #3 is where you start asking if Silver engineered this whole thing on purpose. Imagine the Warriors have another year like 2026 and end up in the Play In. Now they're getting the 1st overall pick to extend Steph's career. In this scenario, Golden State and Oklahoma City have the first two picks of the draft. That's not a lottery designed to help struggling franchises find their way back. That's a system that rewards playoff teams with superstar talent.

The worst teams in the league consistently get punished under this new plan. Sacramento, Indiana, Memphis, Brooklyn, Washington. These aren't exactly free agent destinations to begin with. Silver's "solution" doesn't stop tanking. It just makes being stuck in mediocrity potentially permanent for the teams that need help most.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.