The 2026 MLB All-Star Game is set to light up Philadelphia on Tuesday, a massive showdown between the American League and National League in the 96th Midsummer Classic. Everyone's buzzing about the big names, but if you want the real scoop, you gotta look at what SportsLine's Matt Severance is dropping. This dude is on an insane 118-66-1 roll on MLB picks, pulling in +1266, and he just locked in a call on the total runs that will have you rethinking everything.
The AL's History and the NL's Recent Push
Look, the American League has been running this show for decades, holding a 48-44-3 lead all time. Since '97, they've absolutely owned it, going 22-5-1. That's pure dominance. But don't sleep on the National League, man. They've grabbed two of the last three All-Star victories, including that wild 2025 edition that went to a 'swing off' after nine innings of deadlock. You remember that, right? They pulled out a 7-6 win last year, after the AL snagged a 5-3 win in 2024. It is not going to be easy for either side, especially with some absolute superstars sidelined. The NL is without their two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who is out with a knee issue. Over in the AL dugout, they're missing some serious power with Aaron Judge (rib), Byron Buxton (hip), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (back) all sitting this one out. It is a blow for sure, but the show must go on. Hometown hero Cristopher Sanchez is gonna start on the bump for the NL, while the AL is handing the ball to Dylan Cease. It is a classic matchup, no doubt about it.The Expert Who Saw It Coming
Now, about this Matt Severance guy. He is not some rookie just guessing. This man has been in the industry since 2005, a high-volume handicapper who absolutely crushes it. Since joining SportsLine, he's shot to the top, becoming their number one MLB expert. Over the last four MLB seasons, he is up a mind-boggling $1,681! His track record is legit, and he is coming into this game red hot. So when he says the over/under for total runs, set at 8, is heading a certain direction, you better listen. Severance is going hard on the Under 8 total runs at -104. Why? He broke it down for SportsLine, saying each manager is gonna run a revolving door of arms. "Each manager is going to use pretty much every pitcher on the roster each for one inning," he said. Think about it: new guy comes in, throws nearly 100 MPH, every single inning. That makes scoring tough, even for these stacked lineups. We saw 24 pitchers used in 2025. Yeah, offense has ticked up a bit recently, but before 2024 and 2025, the last time we saw eight or more combined runs in an All-Star Game was way back in 2018. The pitching depth is just too insane for a slugfest. The first pitch drops at 8 p.m. ET. The NL is currently sitting at -130 on the money line, with the AL at +110. Will the National League keep their recent streak alive, or will the American League's historical dominance kick back in? Forget the hype, pay attention to the numbers. Everyone is watching to see if Severance's bold prediction on the Under plays out. This could be one for the books.This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.