The Kraken's Lottery Odds Are About to Get Real: Here's How the NHL Actually Picks First

The 2026 NHL draft lottery is happening tonight, and if you think the team with the worst record automatically gets the No. 1 pick, you're going to lose money on that bet. The lottery system is way more complicated than that, and understanding how it works could matter a lot for Seattle's future.

Why Does the NHL Even Have a Lottery?

The short answer: to keep teams from tanking on purpose. A lottery gives multiple non-playoff teams a legitimate shot at landing that generational talent at No. 1, not just whoever finished dead last. Without it, you'd see teams completely mail it in for a whole season, which is terrible for the league's competitive balance and the fans watching. Plus, it creates buzz across half the league's fan bases between the end of the regular season and draft night. Everyone gets hope.

How This Actually Works

Here's where it gets wild. Fourteen ping-pong balls get dumped into a machine that generates 1,001 possible combinations. Each team in the lottery gets assigned a specific set of four-number combinations based on their record. The worse you finished, the more combinations you get. The Vancouver Canucks, who had the worst record this past season, got 185 combinations, which gives them an 18.5% chance at the first draw.

An accounting firm handles the actual process for the league and tracks which team owns each combination. One combination gets deleted to make it an even 1,000 instead of 1,001. The first draw determines who gets the No. 1 pick based on their assigned combinations.

The Cap on How Far You Can Move

Here's the twist that changes everything: since 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order. So if a team sitting in spots 12 through 16 wins that first draw, they move up accordingly instead of jumping all the way to No. 1. That's a huge difference when you're thinking about franchise-changing talent.

The draft class this year includes some serious prospects: Penn State left wing Gavin McKenna, Frolunda HC forward Ivar Stenberg, and Prince George Cougars defenseman Carson Carels are all names to watch.

Tune in tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN to see which team gets lucky and which fan bases have to wait another year.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.