The SackSEER Model Just Ranked the 2026 Edge Rushers, and David Bailey Is Running Away With It
The 2026 NFL draft is loaded at edge rusher, and ESPN's SackSEER projection system is here to sort through the hype. Seven prospects are projected to go in the first round, but the model has some strong opinions about who's actually worth your draft capital.
Here's the thing: SackSEER predicts sack totals across a player's first five professional seasons, and it doesn't mess around. The system is built on hard data and historical comparisons, not just tape and vibes. According to the model, David Bailey from Texas Tech is the clear favorite for 2026.
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Bailey led all of FBS with 14.5 sacks last season, which is the kind of production that gets scouts excited. But here's what makes him stand out to SackSEER: he's the only prospect in this draft class who combines elite collegiate sack production with outstanding workout numbers. We're talking a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical, and a 10-foot-9 broad jump. The model projects him for 26.6 sacks through his first five seasons, and he's compared favorably to historical studs like Khalil Mack and DeMarcus Ware. Scouts Inc. ranks him seventh overall, but SackSEER clearly thinks he's the real deal.
Don't Sleep on the Sleepers (and Watch Out for the Hype)
One thing to remember: projecting college players to the pros is genuinely difficult. The model identified one strong sleeper candidate worth taking a chance on despite mediocre collegiate sack production, along with one prospect who might be getting overrated by the market. The wide range of possibilities means some of these guys will become double-digit sack machines while others fade into obscurity.
One major change this year: SackSEER removed consideration of three-cone drill times. Why? Only two edge rusher prospects actually ran it at the combine. Can't grade what nobody's going to do, right?
No prospect in this class is projected with more than six sacks per season, but take that with a grain of salt. Draft day always surprises us. Keep watching as the evaluation continues.
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