Rafael Devers Is Hitting .235, and Baseball Is Still Talking About How Bad It Is

Alright, Seattle, listen up, because sometimes the biggest swings don't pay off, and man, does that hit different when it's for another team. Rafael Devers, remember him? The guy the Giants went all-in for a year ago? Yeah, well, it's June 2026, and his bat is looking rough. Real rough. He's currently sporting a .235 batting average, with a .293 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging. Oof. He's been out there every single game, got 9 homers, and is tied for the league lead with 21 doubles, but those other numbers? They're telling a whole different story, and frankly, it's not a pretty one for a guy on such a big contract.

The Metrics Are Screaming, and It Ain't Good News

Look, sometimes a player just looks off, right? And the metrics confirm what folks have been seeing all year: Devers is a mess at the plate. Yeah, he can still hit the ball hard, we'll give him that. His 49.5% Hard Hit rate is in the 88th percentile, and his average exit velocity of 91.9 mph sits in the 87th. His 9.5% Barrel rate is the only other above-average category, clocking in at the 61st percentile. Those numbers are still solid, no doubt. But here's the kicker: they're all major declines from his prime years, specifically 2021-2024, when he was tearing it up with a .279/.354/.519 slash line, 126 home runs, 384 RBI, and a staggering +17.0 fWAR. The drop-off is undeniable. And don't even get me started on the whiff rate. He's whiffing at 31.6% this year, which is in the 10th percentile. Compare that to 2021's 27.7%, 2022's 28.2%, 2023's 26.1%, 2024's 30.9%, and 2025's 31.6%. It's a consistent slide, and it's getting harder to ignore.

The Strike Zone Is His Kryptonite Right Now

So, what's really going on? The big turning point in Devers' career seems to be between 2023 and 2024, and it all boils down to one critical thing: his contact rate in the strike zone. From 2021 to 2023, he was averaging a solid 79.2% contact. But then 2024 hit, and it dropped to 74.9%. Last year, 2025, it fell further to 73.9%, and this year, 2026, it's hovering at 74.2%. For context, the league average is usually between 76-77%. That's a huge difference, people! If you look at all qualified batters since 2021, Devers ranks 13th-lowest in this stat. But if you narrow it down to just 2024-present, he's the absolute lowest, sitting at a brutal 74.6%. That inability to consistently make contact on pitches *in the strike zone* is crashing head-first into another skill that's slipped: pitch recognition. His called strike percentage has steadily climbed from a 10.7% average in 2021-2023 to 12.3% in 2024, 13.2% in 2025, and now a whopping 15% this season. You can't hit the ball hard if you're not swinging at strikes or making contact when you do.

It's a long season, fans, and while we're always pulling for our Mariners, it's worth watching how a big contract for a former star can really go sideways. Devers is clearly battling it out there. The question is, can he turn it around, or are we witnessing the new normal? We'll be watching to see how the rest of this season plays out, because every swing counts in this game.

DFS Pick'em

📋 Chalkboard: 100% Deposit Match Up to $100 + a Free Square on Your First Entry

Use code ONTAP to lock in this offer.

👉 Double your first deposit on Chalkboard

Sponsored. Must be 18+. Terms apply.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.