Jon Rahm Is Finishing Outside The Top 5 and Nobody in Golf Is Ready For It

Seattle, get ready! The 2026 U.S. Open is about to kick off at Shinnecock Hills, and if you thought you had your picks locked, hit pause. SportsLine's legendary computer model, the one that has nailed seventeen majors, including its fifth Masters in a row this year, just dropped a bombshell prediction. After simulating this whole tournament ten thousand times, the results are in, and they are wild. The biggest shocker? Jon Rahm, who sits as the third favorite with +1500 odds, is projected to *stumble hard* and finish outside the top five! That's a huge call! This model, crafted by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a track record that screams profitability. It called last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship, so when it tells you to fade a guy like Rahm, you listen. Rahm won this event in 2021, but since then, he hasn't managed to crack better than a T-7 finish at the U.S. Open. He did snag a T-2 at the PGA Championship last month, a strong showing, but the model noted it was his first top-five in a major since 2023. That’s a serious red flag, especially with U.S. Open level pressure. For anyone eyeing Rahm as a win contender, the model is waving a huge "no go" sign.

Who's Rising While Rahm Falls?

But if Rahm is out, who's in? The mode

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l is also calling for a huge rise from Cameron Young. This guy, despite never winning a major and with longer odds at +2200, is surprisingly projected as a top-5 contender! Young has been on fire this year, bagging two wins and six top-10 finishes, including an impressive T-3 performance at the Masters. The model loves his strong driving metrics for Shinnecock Hills, seeing him as a major dark horse.

The Stacked Field at Shinnecock Hills

Beyond the surprises, there's plenty more drama. Scottie Scheffler, the outright favorite at +550, is trying to complete the Career Grand Slam. Rory McIlroy, who snagged the Masters title this year, is at +1200, hunting for his first U.S. Open win in fifteen years. Xander Schauffele is at +1600, Tommy Fleetwood at +1800, and Matt Fitzpatrick at +2000. Long shots like Brooks Koepka, who won here in 2018 at 1 over and is now +4500, defending champ J.J. Spaun (+6000), and this year's PGA Championship winner, Aaron Rai (+6500), are also in the mix. This is going to be one for the ages, folks. The 2026 U.S. Open tees off Thursday at 6:35 a.m. ET from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Will the model be right about Rahm's stumble and Young's surge? You know I'll be glued to every shot, and you should be too. Get ready for some epic drama, Emerald City! This is what major championships are all about!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.