Jon Rahm Is Headed For A Shocking U.S. Open Stumble, And The Numbers Don't Lie

Alright, Seattle, buckle up because the golf world is about to get rocked! We're talking U.S. Open predictions, and the one model that consistently calls its shots just dropped some absolute bombs for Shinnecock Hills. This isn't some shot in the dark, folks. This is the SportsLine proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, the same genius who’s nailed a mind-blowing 17 majors going into this weekend, including the 2026 Masters, its FIFTH Masters in a row, plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. When this model speaks, you listen. And what it's saying about one of golf's biggest names for the 2026 U.S. Open, teeing off this Thursday, June 18, in Southampton, N.Y., is going to make some serious waves.

Jon Rahm? Forget About Him For The Top 5.

You heard that right. Jon Rahm, the third favorite at +1300 odds, the guy who actually *won* the U.S. Open in 2021, is apparently not even cracking the top five this year, according to SportsLine's simulations. This model ran the U.S. Open 10,000 times, and the data is screaming: fade Rahm. Look, I get it, Rahm finished T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, which sounds good on paper. But dig a little deeper, and that was his *first* top-five finish in a major since way back in 2023. Since his 2021 U.S. Open victory, he hasn't finished better than T-7 in this very event. The numbers are cold, hard facts, and they're telling

Trade on Every Game with Kalshi

Click Here to sign up to Kalshi — Free $10 when you sign up using our link or use code: ONTAPSEA. The only federally regulated prediction market in the US. Trade on real sports outcomes. Available in all 50 states.

us not to bet on Rahm to be a win contender at Shinnecock Hills. It's wild, right? You'd think a former champ and a favorite would be a lock, but the model sees a stumble coming.

Cameron Young Is The Real Sleeper To Watch

Now, if you're pulling for an underdog story, or just want to see some fresh blood at the top, the model has another shocking call that's got me hyped. Cameron Young, despite never having won a major and rocking slightly longer odds at +2000, is projected as a top-five contender on the leaderboard! This dude is on fire this year. He's already got two wins and six top-10 finishes under his belt, including a T-3 performance at the Masters. His strong driving metrics are apparently tailor-made for success at Shinnecock Hills, making him a golfer the model says you absolutely *should* back for a top-five finish, or even a win. So while Scottie Scheffler (+500) chases the Career Grand Slam, and Rory McIlroy (+1200) tries to break a 15-year U.S. Open drought, keep a very close eye on Young. This could be his breakout moment. It's going to be a wild week at Shinnecock Hills, with some of the biggest names like defending champ J.J. Spaun (+5500) and 2018 Shinnecock winner Brooks Koepka (+3500) also in the mix. But with the U.S. Open teeing off Thursday, June 18, all eyes should be on these SportsLine predictions. Will Rahm really falter? Can Cameron Young shock the golf world? You know I'll be glued to it, and you should be too. Get ready for some major drama!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.