Jon Rahm Is Stumbling at the U.S. Open and Golf Fans Have No Idea What's Coming

Alright, listen up, Seattle sports fanatics! We're talking golf right now, and if you think it's not wild, you haven't seen the latest from the U.S. Open in 2026. This thing kicks off Thursday, June 18, over at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., and a super-smart computer model just dropped some BOMBSHELLS. Forget everything you thought you knew about the favorites, because one of the biggest names is getting a major reality check. We're talking about Jon Rahm, folks, and this model, which has absolutely NAILED 17 majors, says he's going to finish outside the top 5. Seriously, get ready for some chaos!

The Model That Betrayed a Favorite: Why Rahm Hits a Wall

So, what's the deal with Rahm? This guy is one of the favorites, right? But SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, just isn't having it. This isn't some shot in the dark, either. This same model has been on fire, hitting the 2026 Masters, its fifth Masters in a row, plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. It simulated the U.S. Open 10,000 times, and the message for Rahm is clear: FADE HIM. Yeah, he won the U.S. Open back in 2021, but since then? He hasn't cracked the top 7 at this event. He did snag a T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, but that's his first top-five in a major since 2023. The model sees through the recent hype and says he's not a win contender this week. That's a huge call when you look at his +1500 odds!

Cameron Young: Your Unexpected Top-5 Play for Shinnecock

But hey, where there's a downer, there's always an underdog ready to rise! And the model is pointing us directly to Cameron Young. This dude is at +2200, which puts him in the longer shot category, but the model sees him as a legit top-5 contender on that projected leaderboard. Why? Because Young has been absolutely tearing it up this year with two wins and six top-10 finishes. Plus, he snagged a T3 performance at the Masters! He's never won a major, but his strong driving metrics are screaming success for Shinnecock Hills. If you're looking for someone to back, the model says Young is your guy. This could be his breakout moment on a massive stage, and nobody's really talking about him yet. Could he be the surprise story of the tournament?

Look, Scottie Scheffler is still the favorite at +550, chasing that Career Grand Slam, with Rory McIlroy (+1200), the Masters winner, right behind him. Aaron Rai, the PGA Championship winner, is also in the field. J.J. Spaun is the defending champ, and Brooks Koepka won here in 2018. But with the U.S. Open teeing off this Thursday, June 18, all eyes will be on Shinnecock Hills to see if this model's wild predictions about Rahm's stumble and Young's rise actually pan out. It's going to be epic, Emerald City. Don't miss it!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.