Jon Rahm Is Stumbling at the U.S. Open, But One Dark Horse Is Making a Move Nobody Saw Coming

Alright, Seattle, listen up! We bleed green and blue for our Hawks, Kraken, M's, and Sounders, but even a die-hard fan knows a wild sports prediction when they see it. And this one? It's gonna shake up the golf world. The 2026 U.S. Open tees off this Thursday, June 18, from Shinnecock Hills, N.Y., and a computer model with a SERIOUS track record just dropped some absolute bombs. This thing has nailed a jaw-dropping 17 major tournaments, including the 2026 Masters, its fifth in a row, plus last year's PGA and Open Championship. So when it talks, we listen. And it's saying one of the favorites is about to tank, while a long shot is ready to explode!

Jon Rahm's Shocking U.S. Open Stumble

The favorites are lined up: Scottie Scheffler at +500 for a Career Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy at +1200 gunning for his first U.S. Open in 15 years. Jon Rahm is right there at +1300. But hold onto your hats, because SportsLine's model, after 10,000 simulations, is calling for Rahm to stumble HARD and finish outside the top five. Outside the top five! This is the same Rahm who snagged the U.S. Open in 2021, but he hasn't cracked better than a T-7 since. He did get a T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, but that was his first major top-five since 2023. The model isn't buying him as a win contender, telling

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us to fade him in U.S. Open best bets. If you were thinking of backing Rahm, the numbers say it's a hard pass, Emerald City!

Cameron Young Is About to Explode onto the Leaderboard

Now for the flip side, because every gut punch needs a comeback story, right? While Rahm falters, Cameron Young, at +2000 odds, is being called a legitimate top-five contender. Seriously, a guy who has never won a major, mixing it with the big dogs? This year, Young has already stacked up two wins and six top-10 finishes, including an impressive T-3 at the Masters. The model is absolutely loving his strong driving metrics, which bode extremely well for success on the challenging Shinnecock Hills course. This isn't just a flyer, folks, the numbers are screaming to back this guy in 2026 U.S. Open win and top-five bets. Talk about a surprise breakout player! So, get ready, Seattle. The 2026 U.S. Open kicks off this Thursday, June 18. With defending champ J.J. Spaun and 2018 Shinnecock Hills winner Brooks Koepka in the mix, alongside current major champs Rory McIlroy and Aaron Rai, it's a stacked field. But all eyes will be on whether this uncanny, 17-major-nailing model's wild predictions for Rahm's stumble and Young's rise actually play out. This computer has been ridiculously right, so you know we'll be glued to every swing. Let's see if this U.S. Open gives us the kind of underdog story we always root for!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.