Sam Stevens Is Tied For Second, And A Major-Nailing Model Says He's About To Collapse on U.S. Open Sunday

Alright, Emerald City, you gotta see this. We're heading into the final round of the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, and while Wyndham Clark is out there absolutely dominating with a six-stroke lead, a crazy prediction just dropped. This SportsLine model, the one that's nailed 17 major golf tournaments, including the 2026 Masters, just put out its Sunday picks, and it is brutally cold on Sam Stevens. Seriously, this thing thinks a guy tied for second place is about to completely implode!

Clark's Stranglehold on the Leaderboard

Look, Clark is at 7 under, even on the day in Round 3, and he's got a six-shot cushion over *four* guys tied at 1 under: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Stevens, Sahith Theegala, and Tom Kim. SIX shots! That's the biggest 54-hole lead in the U.S. Open since Rory McIlroy back in 2011. FanDuel has Clark as the -310 favorite, with Scheffler a distant +700. Nobody else is even close. It's Clark's to lose, right?

The Model's Unhinged Call For a Stevens Meltdown

But here's where it gets wild. The SportsLine model, crafted by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the rest of this tournament 10,000 times. This isn't some random guess. This model has a history of being "extremely profitable," hitting the 2026 Masters for its fifth win in a row, plus last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. And its big call for Sunday? It's completely *fading* Sam Stevens i

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n the outright, top-5, and top-10 markets. Fading him! The model says he's finishing 11th, even though he's currently tied for second at 1 over. Stevens, 29, has never won on the PGA Tour, and his best major finish is T23. He had a hot start with 68 and 69 in the first two rounds, but a 72 on Saturday clearly spooked the algorithm. This model is calling for him to "fall completely out of the picture" by the end of Round 4. Can you believe that? A straight up call for an epic collapse!

Xander Schauffele: The Other Side of the Coin

Now, on the flip side, the model *does* have some love for Xander Schauffele. It's liking him in the top-5 market at +110. Schauffele is currently T6 at 1 over, right there in the mix. He might not have a U.S. Open win yet, but this guy is "extremely steady" at this event. His lowest finish ever here is T14, and he's got three career top-5s at the U.S. Open, plus several other finishes just outside that range. The model is "confident he'll remain near the top of the leaderboard." If Stevens falls, Schauffele could be the guy. So, get ready, Seattle sports fans, because Sunday is gonna be wild out there. The first tee times kick off at 7:45 a.m. ET, with Clark and Scheffler in the final pairing at 2:30 p.m. ET. Will Clark cruise to victory? Will Sam Stevens really pull a full-on Houdini and disappear from the leaderboard? And can Xander Schauffele capitalize? This U.S. Open has already delivered some incredible drama, and the final round is set to be absolutely bananas!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.