The Model That Nailed 17 Majors Predicts a Major Stumble For Brooks Koepka at the U.S. Open

Alright, golf fans, get ready, because a computer model that has absolutely dominated major predictions just dropped a bombshell about the 2026 U.S. Open! This isn't just some random hot take. We're talking about a proprietary golf betting model built by DFS pro Mike McClure, one that has simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. And what did it find for this week's action at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club? A shocking prediction for a past U.S. Open champ, Brooks Koepka!

Koepka's Odds Are a Trap, Says The Super Model

Seriously, folks, this model is no joke. It's walked into major tournaments and nailed 17 winners, including the 2026 Masters, which was its fifth Masters win in a row! It also called last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. So when it speaks, we listen. And what it's saying about Brooks Koepka, who won the U.S. Open back in 2018 at Shinnecock, is going to make some heads spin.

Despite being listed with +3500 odds and counted among the top ten golfers with the shortest odds in the field, the model forecasts a big stumble for Koepka. Forget contending, it says he won't even finish in the top 25! Why the cold shoulder from the supercomputer? Koepka's return season on the PGA Tour has been anything but smooth sailing. He's only managed a single top 10 finish this year, even when playing in weaker fields because he hasn't qualified for signature events. Plus, his game is just not where it needs to be, struggling both off the tee and on the green. The guy ranks outside the top 100 tour golfers in both driving accuracy percentage and strokes gained: putting. He's got five majors to his name, yeah, but his recent form? He hasn't landed a single top 10 in his last 12 major tournament starts, with seven finishes outside the top 40 compared to just three inside the top 25. The model is crystal clear: avoid betting on Koepka this week.

Who The Model Does Like for Shinnecock Hills

So, if Koepka's out, who's in? The 2026 U.S. Open is kicking off on Thursday, June 18, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, New York, marking the sixth time this historic links course has hosted the major. While Koepka is one of a dozen past champions in the field, aiming for another title, the odds favor someone who's never lifted this specific trophy. Scottie Scheffler is leading the pack with +550 odds, as he's chasing a Career Grand Slam. Rory McIlroy is next up with +1200 odds. Other strong contenders include Jon Rahm at +1500, Xander Schauffele at +1800, Tommy Fleetwood at +2000, and Ludvig Aberg with +2500 odds.

The model has locked in its projection for Scheffler too, but you'll have to hit up SportsLine to see the full projected leaderboard and all the other surprising results from its 10,000 simulations. What will happen when the pros hit Shinnecock Hills this Thursday? It's going to be wild, and if this model is right about Koepka, we're in for some serious drama right out of the gate!

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Seattle On Tap editorial staff. Always verify information with official team sources.